The crypto community is hoping for a positive 2025 after Donald Trump returns to the White House, but a new report suggests the Trump-led growth wave could hit a roadblock.
As 2025 begins, the crypto trading environment shows mixed trends following the December FOMC meeting and the holiday season.
Bitcoin’s Risk of Losing Gaining Momentum Despite Trump’s Support
According to 10x Researchthe first quarter of 2025 may not have the same upward momentum as the period from late January to March 2024 or late September to mid-December.
The release of the consumer price index (CPI) on January 15 is an important event worth noting. A recovery can be expected before the CPI data is released, and the market could rebound if the results are favorable.
“A favorable inflation outcome could rekindle optimism, fueling a growth spurt at Trump’s inauguration on January 20,” 10x founder Mark Thielen wrote.
However, the upward momentum due to this event may be short-lived. Thielen added that the market could decline before the January 29 FOMC meeting. He predicts that Bitcoin will fluctuate between $96K and $98K by the end of January.
Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in Q4 2024 after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. September interest rate cuts are also very beneficial for the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Still Leading the Way in 2025
Another factor to consider when discussing BTC price path in 2025 is Bitcoin Dominance. According to a report by 10x, from January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin’s market share increased from 50% to 60%, creating great pressure on altcoins.
As Bitcoin Dominance increased, many altcoins struggled to gain momentum, making it difficult for investors to see significant gains outside of Bitcoin.
There was a brief period when Bitcoin Dominance dropped to 53% over a three-week period, sparking hopes for an altcoin season. However, this drop was short-lived and Bitcoin Dominance quickly recovered to nearly 58%, holding steady at 55% by the end of 2024. This consolidation around the 55% mark shows that Bitcoin still has tight control of the market.
For investors, this highlights the importance of keeping a close eye on Bitcoin Dominance. At the time of writing, Bitcoin Dominance is around 57% while the price trades at $99,225.
The Bitcoin prediction from 10xResearch comes alongside CoinShares head of research James Butterfill’s prediction last week that Bitcoin could reach a potential peak at $150K and correct to $80K in 2025.
Similarly, Bitwise Asset Management predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200K by the end of this year.
