A 50% Bitcoin drop before December is unconfirmed, risks elevated
New cycle commentary circulating in the market claims Bitcoin could lose half its value before December. That outcome remains unconfirmed: available institutional research and recent market reports point to elevated downside risks, but not a definitive 50% drawdown on a fixed timetable.
The risk case hinges on how prior cycles behaved around major trend lines and whether institutional demand weakens at key support zones. For now, the evidence supports a conditional scenario, one that requires additional technical confirmation and stress in flows, rather than a base case.
What new cycle data says and why it matters now
Cycle studies emphasize that deeper drawdowns often coincide with the loss of long-duration moving averages and with markets probing the cost bases of large holders, including spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries. If those zones fail, selling can accelerate, but the timeline and depth vary meaningfully by cycle.
On the institutional side, banks have flagged softer momentum and a thinner bid from corporate “treasury company” buyers, a combination that can amplify volatility during risk-off episodes. According to Standard Chartered, reduced enthusiasm from these buyers has been a notable feature of the latest phase, implying any break of major supports could see less immediate cushioning from that cohort.
“Historically, BTC hasn’t stopped at a ~40% drawdown without moving toward ~50% within a three-month window, especially after the 50-week moving average has been lost,” said Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital. This is an observation from prior cycles, not a guarantee for the current one, and it underscores why technicians are focused on weekly-trend confirmation before assigning higher conviction to a deeper decline.
Technical signals and levels: drawdown history, 50-week MA, supports
The 50-week moving average is a widely watched trend filter because sustained moves below it have often preceded extended corrective phases in prior crypto cycles. Drawdown clusters near that line typically act as “decision zones,” where either trend repair begins or a larger retracement unfolds. Traders also assess multi-cycle drawdown bands to judge whether current stress aligns with historical mid-cycle behavior or something more severe.
At the time of this writing, recent weekend trading reports noted Bitcoin dropped about 4% to $63,956 after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered risk aversion, according to TS2. Such event-driven moves can distort short-term signals, so technicians tend to confirm any break with follow-through across multiple sessions and on weekly closes.
Sellers also returned late in the week, taking prices roughly 5.5% below a midweek high to the mid‑$65,000s, as reported by Cointelegraph. Moves of this magnitude within days are consistent with a high‑volatility regime, which is why many analysts require a confluence of factors, weekly-trend loss, failed retests, and weaker institutional flows, before treating a 50% drawdown scenario as anything more than an elevated risk, not a baseline.
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