Bitcoin holds as on-chain data shows two-wave capitulation

Short-term holders blinked; ETFs mostly held firm

Bitcoin’s drop toward $60,000 was defined by who sold and who did not. On-chain patterns point to short-term holders absorbing most of the realized pain in the latest leg lower, while long-term profiles and U.S. spot ETF investors largely refrained from wholesale liquidation.

Selling pressure rotated as key levels failed, with newer entrants proving most sensitive to breaks. That cohort’s behavior is consistent with what on-chain cycle studies have shown in past resets: capitulation tends to begin at the edges of the holder spectrum and then tests deeper conviction only if stress persists.

Why it matters now and immediate market impact

Valuation anchors help frame risk. Based on data from Glassnode, the short-term holder cost basis sits near $94,000, with the Active Investors Mean around $86,800 and the True Market Mean about $80,100, while the realized price is closer to $55,600, gaps that leave many recent buyers underwater and sensitive to volatility.

Loss realization underscores who blinked first. As reported by CryptoSlate, short-term holders realized roughly $1.14 billion of losses in a single day around the February downdraft, versus about $225 million for long-term holders, highlighting where the acute capitulation occurred.

ETF positioning affects flows but did not drive a disorderly exit. Holders of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are nursing their largest unrealized drawdowns since launch, near 42%, yet flows indicate resilience; said James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence: “ETF holders are hanging in there pretty good.”

Scale also matters for context. As per Bitget, seven-day realized losses reached about $2.3 billion as of February 13, placing the episode among the larger capitulation windows of the cycle. That magnitude supports the view of a structural reset without confirming a final washout. Separately, Bitcoin changes hands near $68,900 at the time of this writing, based on data from Nasdaq.

Two-wave Bitcoin capitulation: November 2025 and February 2026

According to Checkonchain, the capitulation unfolded in two waves: first near $80,000 in November 2025 as momentum cracked, then again around $60,000 in February 2026 as seller cohorts rotated and realized losses surged. The sequence helps explain why support fractured in stages rather than collapsing all at once.

As reported by Forklog, some analysts argue a textbook “final capitulation” may still be absent, noting about 38% of circulating supply in unrealized loss and drawing comparisons to stress seen in mid-2021. If such a final flush occurs, it would likely coincide with a sharper, short-lived spike in realized losses and a decisive reset of short-term holder positioning before more durable stabilization can take hold.

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