Bitcoin price recently spiked to an all-time high of $104,087, but has since entered a correction phase. Despite setting new milestones, Bitcoin is still struggling to surpass the 100K USD threshold.
Investors are currently quite optimistic, however there is also concern that the market may be at a tipping point, and prices will fall if BTC fails to sustain above this level.
Bitcoin faces high risks
Market sentiment towards Bitcoin is currently very high risk, as indicated by the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) index. The NUPL index surpassed the 0.59 level, which is one standard deviation above the four-year average.
This indicates a period of extremely high unrealized profits, which often corresponds to euphoria in the market. High NUPL levels are often followed by significant corrections, when investor optimism can translate into profit-taking.
The NUPL index implies that the Bitcoin market is becoming overcrowded, and this could lead to increased selling pressure. When the market becomes overextended, prices can quickly reverse from bullish to bearish as more investors begin to realize their profits. The risk of a correction in the coming weeks remains high as NUPL remains above the dangerous threshold.
Over the past few days, realized returns have shown signs of decreasing. This reflects a cautious view on the part of investors, as they wait for more clarity on the market’s direction.
“Realized profits, which track USD profits from moving coins, peaked at $10.5 billion per day as it approached the $100K mark. Currently, this profit has decreased to about 2.5 billion USD per day, a decrease of 76%. This sharp decline suggests a clear calm, hinting that profit-taking may be more impulsive than long-term,” Glassnode notes. announced.
BTC price prediction: Maintain caution
Currently, Bitcoin price fluctuates between $100K USD and $89,800 USD, and the volatility is expected to continue. If BTC can break above the $100K USD threshold and turn it into a support level, the price could move higher, potentially reaching $105K USD in the coming weeks. However, if Bitcoin fails to maintain momentum above $100K, a retest of $89,800 is likely.
A failure to maintain the $89,800 support could lead to a significant price decline, possibly testing the $85K support. If selling pressure increases and Bitcoin fails to recover, a deeper decline could occur, pushing BTC closer to $75K. This would indicate an extended period of consolidation before any further bullish attempts.
In the current market context, Bitcoin’s ability to recover and maintain the $100K USD level is very important. Although the general sentiment is still optimistic, the high NUPL level shows that correction risks are real.