Analysts Say Ethereum’s Worst Period Is Over: Can ETH Outperform BTC?

Ethereum may have put its worst stretch behind it, with analysts pointing to a potential bottom in the ETH/BTC ratio and drawing parallels to a previous cycle that preceded a major rally.

The ETH/BTC trading pair, which measures Ethereum’s relative strength against Bitcoin, has been in a prolonged decline. That ratio bottomed in April and now mirrors the 2019 cycle, according to analyst commentary published via TradingView. In 2019, a similar ETH/BTC bottom marked the start of a multi-month period where Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin significantly. For related coverage, see Major Binance Announcement for Users: EU Regulatory Details Explained.

Why Analysts Think Ethereum’s Worst Stretch May Be Ending

The core thesis rests on a structural comparison. The ETH/BTC ratio’s April low resembles the trough seen in September 2019, after which Ethereum began a sustained period of relative outperformance that lasted well into 2020. For related coverage, see Binance Reportedly Invests $2 Billion in Mesh: What It Could Mean.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe (CryptoMichNL) has been among the voices flagging this shift. In a post on X, he pointed to the ETH/BTC chart as evidence that the pair’s long downtrend could be reversing. The pattern suggests that Ethereum’s underperformance relative to Bitcoin, a trend that has frustrated ETH holders for much of the past year, may have reached an inflection point.

This comes after a difficult stretch for Ethereum, during which large holders offloaded nearly $900 million in ETH, adding selling pressure that weighed on the ratio further.

Could ETH Really Outperform BTC From Here?

For Ethereum to “crush” Bitcoin in relative terms, several conditions would need to align. Network upgrades, renewed DeFi activity, and a rotation of capital from Bitcoin-dominant trades back into altcoins would all support the case.

The counterargument is straightforward. Bitcoin continues to attract institutional flows, and broader macro uncertainty, including the dynamics captured in recent ETF outflow trends, could keep risk appetite muted. A sustained Bitcoin rebound driven by spot ETF inflows could keep BTC dominant and limit any ETH breakout.

The 2019 analogy also has limits. Market structure has changed substantially since then, with the introduction of spot ETFs, liquid staking, and layer-2 scaling, all of which alter how capital flows between the two assets.

What Traders Should Watch Next for Confirmation

The key metric to monitor is the ETH/BTC ratio itself. A sustained move above its 200-day moving average would be the clearest technical confirmation that the bottom is in. Failure to hold above April’s lows, conversely, would invalidate the bullish thesis.

On-chain activity on Ethereum, particularly gas fees and active addresses, would provide fundamental backing for any ratio recovery. Rising network usage would signal genuine demand rather than speculative positioning alone.

Until those confirmations arrive, the analyst case remains a pattern-based hypothesis rather than a certainty. The historical parallel is suggestive, but traders will need to see follow-through in both price action and fundamentals before treating Ethereum’s recovery as a settled trend.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.