Everyone Expects XRP to Crash Further: Is Ripple About to Surprise the Market?

XRP slid to $1.045 on June 28, 2026, extending losses in a market gripped by extreme fear, yet a fresh European regulatory approval for Ripple and persistent institutional inflows suggest the bearish consensus may be more fragile than it appears.

Why the Market Expects XRP to Fall Further

XRP has been under pressure alongside most altcoins in a risk-off environment. The token traded at $1.045 with a market cap near $65 billion, down about 2.2% over the prior 24 hours. For related coverage, see Small Gains for ETH and DOGE, But BlockDAG's $0.10 Buyback Is the Number Everyone Is Talking About.

XRP spot price

$1.045

The Fear & Greed Index printed 18, its “Extreme Fear” classification reflecting the broader mood that has weighed on crypto since early June. Bitcoin recorded $1.438 billion in outflows and Ethereum saw whale-driven selling pressure alongside $257 million in outflows during the same period, according to CoinShares.

Open interest in XRP futures stood at roughly $2.38 billion, while 24-hour liquidations totaled about $1.68 million. Those figures point to active leveraged positioning on both sides, though the price trend has favored shorts. According to unconfirmed market commentary, approximately $227 million in short-liquidation leverage may be stacked against XRP, though that figure could not be independently verified. For related coverage, see Best Crypto to Buy Before the Next Rally Leaves Everyone Else Behind: Solana, Arbitrum, Zcash, and BlockDAG.

Could Ripple Still Surprise Traders?

On June 23, Ripple announced it received preliminary CASP approval from Luxembourg’s CSSF under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. The approval would let Ripple scale regulated cryptoasset services across all 30 countries of the European Economic Area. For related coverage, see BlockDAG Shakes Up The Crypto Market With $0.001 Buyback While Humanity Crypto & Hyperliquid Skyrocket.

Cassie Craddock, Ripple’s Managing Director for Europe, said the approval marked a turning point for institutional adoption on the continent.

“MiCA has helped to unlock a new wave of institutional digital assets adoption.”

— Cassie Craddock, Ripple Managing Director for Europe (source)

A genuine surprise, as opposed to a routine dead-cat bounce, would need to be catalyzed by developments that shift the structural narrative. The MiCA license is one such catalyst, giving Ripple a concrete regulatory foothold in Europe that most competitors lack. Ripple has also been expanding its institutional profile through its broader corporate strategy.

Meanwhile, XRP continues to draw institutional capital even as prices fall. CoinShares reported $20.3 million in XRP inflows during the week of June 1, making it one of only five crypto assets to attract meaningful institutional investment while majors like Bitcoin and Ethereum bled capital.

Ripple holds approximately 38.16 billion XRP, with 33.2 billion placed in escrow as of April 30, 2026. That escrow structure limits the pace of new supply entering the market, a detail bulls point to when arguing the sell-side is more constrained than headline token counts suggest. XRP also maintains regulatory clarity in the United States, where it has been determined not to be a security.

What to Watch Next for XRP

With roughly $1.05 billion in 24-hour trading volume, positioning remains active enough for sharp reactions to fresh news, whether that news is bullish or bearish.

XRP 24-hour volume

$1.05B

The bearish thesis holds if macro risk-off sentiment persists and the Fear & Greed Index stays pinned near extreme fear. A sustained break below $1.00 with rising liquidation volume would confirm that sellers remain in control.

The bullish counter-case strengthens if Ripple’s MiCA approval translates into measurable European business growth, if institutional inflows continue to defy the broader sell-off, or if the $2.38 billion in open interest triggers a short squeeze as leveraged bears get caught offside. In a market where traders are already positioning for the next rally, the gap between crowded expectations and a single strong catalyst can close quickly.

Near-term signals to track: weekly CoinShares flow data for continued institutional appetite, XRP futures open interest shifts on CoinGlass, and any formal progression of Ripple’s MiCA license from preliminary to full approval.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.