XRP’s recent bounce may be a bull trap rather than a bottom, with one chart analyst warning the token could stage a short-term relief rally before sliding back below $1. The bearish setup keeps a downside target of $0.70 to $0.80 in play unless bulls reclaim key resistance this week.
Analyst maps a relief rally before a possible break below $1
Analyst Chart Nerd expects XRP to stage a short-term relief rally before a deeper correction resumes, according to a summary published on Binance Square. The framework treats the current bounce as a possible dead-cat move, not a confirmed trend reversal. For related coverage, see HBAR Holds $0.087 as BCH Near $472, While BlockDAG's $0.000022 Sits 85x Below Market With Batch 3 Arriving Next Week.
The relief-rally targets sit at the 20 EMA near $2.00 and the 50 EMA near $1.80, the same source said. A push into that zone would still leave the broader structure bearish rather than repaired. For related coverage, see Bitcoin Under Pressure as 30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%.
If XRP fails to reclaim higher resistance, the analyst’s downside target zone remains $0.70 to $0.80, a level that implies a fresh move back below $1. XRP currently trades at $1.13, up roughly 4.2% over 24 hours, keeping it close enough to the sub-$1 warning for the scenario to stay credible. For related coverage, see FT report: London Stock Exchange plans round-the-clock trading.
Why $2.4 and former support at $1.80 matter next
The single line that decides the setup is $2.4. A failure to break and hold above that level keeps the deeper correction scenario intact, the Binance Square summary said, making it the invalidation threshold traders should watch.
The $1.80 mark carries added weight because it flipped from support to resistance. Chart Nerd’s framework treats it as a former support that held for more than 400 consecutive days between November 2024 and December 2025, and is now a ceiling rather than a floor.
Lower down, secondary technical work flags $1.13 as a critical support area and $0.81132 as a deeper support level, in analysis warning that the 2,500-day breakout could still be a bull trap. That lower band lines up with the sub-$1 downside case and frames the next 24 to 72 hours as the decisive window. The ongoing XRPL reserve debate over adoption and security adds a fundamental backdrop to the technical picture.
On-chain accumulation and ETF inflows complicate the bearish call
The bearish price structure is not the whole story. Roughly 100 million XRP left Binance over the prior month, cutting the exchange’s reserve from about 2.78 billion to 2.68 billion XRP by June 25, Cointelegraph reported. Falling exchange reserves are typically read as a counter-signal to capitulation, though not proof the bearish thesis is wrong.
Institutional demand has also not vanished. Spot XRP ETFs logged $2 million in net inflows on June 24, with cumulative inflows reaching $243 million since April. Cointelegraph noted XRP touched $1.01 on June 25, its lowest of 2026, leaving it down 43% year-to-date at that point.
The mood still favors caution. The Fear & Greed Index reads 25, or Extreme Fear, a backdrop that sharpens the relief-rally-versus-capitulation framing and reflects the same pressure weighing on majors like Bitcoin stalling below $70K.
For now, traders are watching two triggers: whether XRP can reclaim $2.4 to invalidate the bear case, or whether it rolls over from the $1.80 to $2.00 resistance band back toward the $0.70 to $0.80 zone. XRP’s market cap stands near $70.9 billion on 24-hour volume of about $1.27 billion, leaving ample liquidity to resolve either way.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
