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The cryptocurrency market is set to see $2 billion and $270 million in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, which could lead to short-term price fluctuations and impact traders’ profits.
Of this total, Bitcoin (BTC) options represent 1 billion 810 million USD, while Ethereum (ETH) options represent 459 million USD.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Holders Prepare for Volatility
According to data on Deribit, 19,364 Bitcoin options will expire today, slightly lower than last week when 19,885 BTC contracts expired. Options contracts expiring today have a put-to-call ratio of 0.65 and a maximum pain point of $97,000.
The put-to-call ratio indicates that there is still optimism despite the pioneering cryptocurrency moving away from the $100,000 mark.
There are 141,185 Ethereum options expiring today, down from 205,724 in the first week of 2025. With a put-to-call ratio of 0.48 and a maximum pain point of $3,450, expiration could impact affect ETH price in the short term.
As options contracts expire at 8:00 UTC today, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are expected to approach their maximum pain points. According to data from TinTucBitcoin, BTC is trading at $93,792 at the time of writing, while ETH is being exchanged for $3,258.
This suggests that prices may rise as “smart” money moves them towards the maximum “pain point” level. According to the Max Pain theory, option prices tend to skew toward the strike price where the highest number of contracts, both call and put, expire.
Price pressure on BTC and ETH could ease after 08:00 UTC on Friday when Deribit settles the contracts. However, the large scale of these maturities could still drive higher volatility in the crypto markets.
“Is it an explosion or continued accumulation,” Deribit question in a post on X (Twitter).
Meanwhile, analysts remain divided on the next direction for Bitcoin price. Some expect upside, while others bet bearish if support around $92,000 breaks. Glassnode shows weakening in short-term demand momentum in the market.
“Bitcoin’s short-term demand momentum has continued to weaken. An important indicator: Hot capital (capital revived in the past 7 days) has decreased by 66.7% from the December 12 peak of 96.2 billion USD to 32 billion USD,” Glassnode write.
Hot capital indexes typically measure short-term trading activity and liquidity. This decline shows that speculative activities have decreased sharply. Traders who were previously active in moving Bitcoin have withdrawn, indicating waning confidence or interest in the short-term trading opportunity. With less capital actively circulating, Bitcoin’s overall liquidity may be decreasing.
This makes it more difficult to execute large trades without affecting the price, which can lead to increased volatility. A sharp drop from $96.2 billion to $32 billion could reflect broader bearish sentiment. Factors such as macroeconomic instability, tight monetary policy or even regulatory developments could cause short-term traders to retreat.
The decline in hot capital may indicate that traders are standing on the sidelines, waiting for clearer market direction. Lower demand momentum could weigh on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain or recover from current price levels. If new capital or increased activity is lacking, downward price pressure could increase.
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