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Ethereum (ETH) price just crossed the $4,000 mark for the first time since March 2024, marking a 25% increase in the past 30 days. However, the current MVRV 7D ratio at -1.35% shows that short-term holders are suffering unrealized losses, with further declines expected before recovery.
Historically, ETH has typically recovered after MVRV drops to -4% or lower, in tandem with whale accumulation, where the number of addresses holding at least 1,000 ETH has steadily increased over the month. 12. While ETH is facing key resistance at $3,987, a break of which could lead to $4,100 and beyond, the emergence of bearish signals from the Converging EMA could test support at $3,500 or lower.
MVRV 7D Ratio Indicates ETH Could Fall Before Soaring
ETH’s 7D MVRV ratio has dropped to -1.35%, from 3.32% on December 16, indicating that on average, short-term holders are currently suffering unrealized losses. Negative MVRV values typically indicate a highly pessimistic market, often reflecting oversold conditions.
This could create an environment where downside risk is reduced, and resilience increases as undervalue attracts new acquisition interest.
The MVRV 7D ratio measures the average profit or loss of ETH Tokens moved over the past week compared to the current market price. Historically, ETH’s MVRV 7D tends to drop around -4% or below -5% before major price rallies occur.
This pattern suggests that while there may be more room for further declines, Ethereum could soon reach price levels that have historically triggered accumulation, potentially preparing for a recovery. price.
Ethereum whales are accumulating again
The number of addresses holding at least 1,000 ETH has been steadily increasing throughout December. On December 1, there were 5,580 such addresses, up from a three-month low of 5,524 on October 30.
This number has increased to 5,612, reflecting consistent accumulation by large holders, or “whales”, over the past month.
Monitoring the movements of “whales” is very important because these large holders can greatly influence market trends. The increase in whale numbers suggests growing confidence among major investors, often seen as a sign of optimism.
This steady accumulation may imply that “whales” predict positive price movements for ETH in the near future, as their actions often precede or contribute to upward price momentum.
ETH Price Prediction: Is a Retest of $4,000 Possible in December?
Ethereum price is currently trading between resistance at $3,987 and support at $3,763. If resistance breaks, ETH price could rally to test $4,100 and, with further momentum, could reach new highs near $4,800 or $4,900.
These price levels represent important targets for further upside if buyers regain control.
However, the EMAs are converging, signaling possible weakness in the trend. Combined with MVRV 7D suggesting further corrections are possible, ETH price could face downward pressure.
If the short-term EMA crosses below the long-term EMA, a bearish signal, ETH price could retest the $3,500 support level. If this level fails to hold, the price could drop lower, potentially reaching $3,256.
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