Bitcoin’s rebound still looks like a bear market bounce rather than full trend repair, with conviction weak and major resistance still overhead even after this week’s lift.
Glassnode Keeps BTC in Bear-Bounce Territory
Glassnode’s April 8 Week On-chain report said Bitcoin is still trading inside a bear-market value zone bounded by the $54,000 Realized Price and the $78,000 True Market Mean. Glassnode tied that structure to weak spot demand, softer futures activity and only modestly improving ETF flows.
CoinGecko showed Bitcoin at $71,804, up 0.53% over 24 hours, with a market cap near $1.44 trillion and volume around $39.4 billion. That still leaves spot well below Glassnode’s $81,600 reclaim level and below the $78,000 ceiling that defines the current relief-rally zone.
Why the STH Cost Basis Matters
Glassnode said the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $81,600 is the level Bitcoin needs to reclaim before the move can be treated as a durable recovery rather than a bearish rebound. Until price recovers that threshold, the bounce stays inside a bearish market structure even if BTC retests the $78,000 True Market Mean first.
CryptoSlate’s market summary published on April 10, 2026 echoed that setup, saying Bitcoin was trading slightly above $72,000 and that the next real shift would come only after a reclaim of $81,600. The same report said 30-day spot relative volume dropped below 0.9 in March, its weakest reading since the 2023 bear market, while realized volatility was 42.5%.
Support, Sentiment and ETF Flows to Watch
Glassnode said a pocket of long gamma has developed between $69,000 and $71,500, creating near-term support just under current price while resistance stays overhead near $78,000. That range matters because a hold above the gamma pocket would keep the rebound intact, but it would not confirm a stronger regime shift without a separate move through $81,600.
Risk appetite still looks thin: the Fear & Greed Index stood at 16, or Extreme Fear, even as daily Bitcoin transactions ran around 482,638. With the Fear & Greed reading at 16, traders are still leaning toward selective bets such as prediction market activity and high-beta themes like BlockDAG speculation instead of treating Bitcoin as a confirmed momentum breakout.
No fresh regulatory filing appears to be driving the move. Instead, Glassnode said the 14-day average of US spot Bitcoin ETF flows has turned modestly positive after an extended stretch of outflows, although April 7 and April 8 ETF flow prints were still negative, which keeps the watchlist simple: defend $69,000 to $71,500, clear $78,000, then reclaim $81,600. That is closer to the selective risk-taking visible in crypto sports prediction markets than the broad accumulation a clean BTC recovery would need.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.
