The creator of the stock-to-slow model said it would be “surprised” if Bitcoin did not return to the trajectory he forecasted, i.e. it will peak in the next 3 years.
Bitcoin (BTC) could still reach an average price of $288,000 over the next three years, analyst PlanB confidently said after BTC/USD dropped 7% on June 12.
In a tweet on Saturday, the creator of popular stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models dismissed doubts that Bitcoin’s long-term bull run is continuing.
PlanB: Bitcoin is still doing its thing
Aside from a chart depicting Bitcoin “chasing gold,” PlanB is particularly interested in Bitcoin’s recent progress despite its failure to break above $40,000.
$288K still in play. It would really surprise me if #bitcoin would not touch the black S2FX model line this phase. Regardless of current volatility, yellow green and blue dots will be (much) higher than red orange dots. pic.twitter.com/np26ypO96X
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 12, 2021
“$288,000 is still within reach,” PlanB said.
“I would be really surprised if bitcoin didn’t hit the black S2FX model line during this period. Regardless of the current volatility, the yellow green and blue dots will be (much) higher than the red orange dots.”
Such “surprise” would provide a serious test of the stock-to-flow model, which is one of the most accurate Bitcoin growth models to date.
Readers can learn more about the stock-to-flow model here
The $288,000 figure refers to the average as determined by the Stock-to-Flow Asset (S2FX) repeat pattern, while that version points to a more modest $100,000 average. Both are based on the current halving cycle, the 4-year period between block reward halvings ending in April 2024.
In additional comments, PlanB noted that 2021 is indeed aligning with price behavior from other all-time highs – 2013 and 2017 – further suggesting that Bitcoin is facing with serious problems.
“The deviation is not much different from 2013 (S2F ~ 10) or 2017 (S2F ~ 25), just normal inertia after the halving,” he shared.
Bitcoin has a “trump card to increase price”
Mike McGlone, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, also believes strongly in the positive impact of the halving.
On Saturday, he described Bitcoin’s dwindling supply as a “trump-up card” for the market’s largest cryptocurrency to naturally rally.
#Bitcoin Crypto Assets Research – Bloomberg.
Bitcoin $100,000 Has Bullish Ace Up Its Sleeve: Declining Supply — This year follows a cut in Bitcoin supply, making the price more likely to appreciate if past patterns hold. pic.twitter.com/tYFYm9HjS0— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) June 12, 2021
The expert also mentioned that Taproot, described as the most significant Bitcoin network upgrade in the past four years, was finally able to activate once a majority consensus is reached.
Due in November, Taproot offers a series of enhancements, aimed at improving the Bitcoin network, including several key features such as making multisig cheaper and more efficient.
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