UBS Forecasts 25-Basis-Point Fed Hikes in September, December

UBS has reversed its Federal Reserve outlook, shifting from expecting no further policy moves to forecasting 25-basis-point rate hikes in both September and December, according to unconfirmed reports. The revised UBS Fed rate hike forecast could not be verified against a readable UBS research note or credible primary report at press time.

UBS revises its Fed outlook from no moves to two hikes

What changed in UBS’s forecast

The bank’s baseline had been for no additional Federal Reserve action, according to unconfirmed reports. That prior stance was a call for the Fed to stay on hold, not a forecast for rate cuts. For related coverage, see AINext Awards & Conference Dubai 2026: Where AI Leaders, Innovators and Decision-Makers Shape the Future of Artificial Intelligence.

UBS has now moved to projecting two increases before year-end, a single source reported. The revision date, the specific UBS division responsible, and the analyst attribution behind the call remain unverified. For related coverage, see AgriNext Awards & Conference Dubai 2026: Where Agriculture Leaders, Innovators and Investors Shape the Future of Food Systems.

The September and December hikes in UBS’s forecast

September: a projected 25-basis-point increase

The first move UBS reportedly projects is a 25-basis-point hike in September. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 basis points equals 0.25 percentage points. The Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting is scheduled for September 15 to 16, 2026. For related coverage, see Hackers Return 85% of Bitcoin Stolen in Bridge Attack.

December: a second projected 25-basis-point increase

UBS also reportedly sees a second 25-basis-point increase in December. Combined, the two forecast hikes would add 50 basis points, or 0.50 percentage points, if both are realized. A future target range cannot be derived from these figures alone, and the path between the two meetings is not specified in the reported forecast. For related coverage, see Moonwell Proposes Rate Changes to Cut Bad-Debt Interest 85%.

How to read UBS’s revised Fed forecast

A bank forecast is not a Fed decision

UBS is forecasting, not reporting adopted policy. On July 29, 2026, the FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, a decision approved by a 9 to 3 vote.

Fed target range held on July 29, 2026

3.50%–3.75%

The three dissenters, Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan, preferred a 1/4-percentage-point increase at that meeting. The statement described inflation as elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, citing supply shocks including energy.

That backdrop of hawkish dissent and above-target inflation sits alongside recent macro data such as China’s August manufacturing PMI beating forecasts. Even so, a UBS forecast is not Fed confirmation, and the brief provides no verified rationale, no agreement among other forecasters, and no evidence of a Bitcoin, equity or bond reaction to this reported revision.

Next checkpoint: the FOMC’s September 15 to 16 meeting, which will show whether actual policy tracks or diverges from the reported UBS call.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.